Tax compliance with uncertain income: a stochastic control model

This paper examines the compliance behaviour of a taxpayer endowed with a stochastic income, taking into account dynamical factors as public and private investments, within a stochastic control framework. Assuming logarithmic utilities and thanks to a suitable rewrite of the problem, we provide an existence and uniqueness result for the solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation associated to the control problem, and we rely on a symbolic and numerical algorithm to study its solution. Moreover, we implement a Monte Carlo simulation in order to determine an estimate of the mean and the variance of the total declared income together with a confidence interval. To illustrate how the method works, we present a computational example where we assign values to the parameters. In this case we perform a sensitivity analysis, showing how the total declared income is affected by public and private investments, probability of being discovered, fine, tax rate and income uncertainty

Optimal Dynamic Procurement Policies for a Storable Commodity with L\'evy Prices and Convex Holding Costs

In this paper we study a continuous time stochastic inventory model for a commodity traded in the spot market and whose supply purchase is affected by price and demand uncertainty. A firm aims at meeting a random demand of the commodity at a random time by maximizing total expected profits. We model the firm's optimal procurement problem as a singular stochastic control problem in which controls are nondecreasing processes and represent the cumulative investment made by the firm in the spot market (a so-called stochastic "monotone follower problem"). We assume a general exponential L\'evy process for the commodity's spot price, rather than the commonly used geometric Brownian motion, and general convex holding costs. We obtain necessary and sufficient first order conditions for optimality and we provide the optimal procurement policy in terms of a "base inventory" process; that is, a minimal time-dependent desirable inventory level that the firm's manager must reach at any time. In particular, in the case of linear holding costs and exponentially distributed demand, we are also able to obtain the explicit analytic form of the optimal policy and a probabilistic representation of the optimal revenue. The paper is completed by some computer drawings of the optimal inventory when spot prices are given by a geometric Brownian motion and by an exponential jump-diffusion process. In the first case we also make a numerical comparison between the value function and the revenue associated to the classical static "newsvendor" strategy.Comment: 28 pages, 3 figures; improved presentation, added new results and section

Addressing ambiguity in randomized reinsurance stop-loss treaties using belief functions

The aim of the paper is to model ambiguity in a randomized reinsurance stop-loss treaty. For this, we consider the lower envelope of the set of bivariate joint probability distributions having a precise discrete marginal and an ambiguous Bernoulli marginal. Under an independence assumption, since the lower envelope fails 2-monotonicity, inner/outer Dempster-Shafer approximations are considered, so as to select the optimal retention level by maximizing the lower expected insurer's annual profit under reinsurance. We show that the inner approximation is not suitable in the reinsurance problem, while the outer approximation preserves the given marginal information, weakens the independence assumption, and does not introduce spurious information in the retention level selection problem. Finally, we provide a characterization of the optimal retention level

Randomised controlled trial combining vitamin E-functionalised chocolate with physical exercise to reduce the risk of protein-energy malnutrition in predementia aged people: study protocol for Choko-Age

Objective: Protein-energy malnutrition and the subsequent muscle wasting (sarcopenia) are common ageing complications. It is knowing to be also associated with dementia. Our programme will test the cytoprotective functions of vitamin E combined with the cortisol-lowering effect of chocolate polyphenols (PP), in combination with muscle anabolic effect of adequate dietary protein intake and physical exercise to prevent the age-dependent decline of muscle mass and its key underpinning mechanisms including mitochondrial function, and nutrient metabolism in muscle in the elderly. Methods and analysis: In 2020, a 6-month double-blind randomised controlled trial in 75 predementia older people was launched to prevent muscle mass loss, in respond to the 'Joint Programming Initiative A healthy diet for a healthy life'. In the run-in phase, participants will be stabilised on a protein-rich diet (0.9-1.0 g protein/kg ideal body weight/day) and physical exercise programme (high-intensity interval training specifically developed for these subjects). Subsequently, they will be randomised into three groups (1:1:1). The study arms will have a similar isocaloric diet and follow a similar physical exercise programme. Control group (n=25) will maintain the baseline diet; intervention groups will consume either 30 g/day of dark chocolate containing 500 mg total PP (corresponding to 60 mg epicatechin) and 100 mg vitamin E (as RRR-alpha-tocopherol) (n=25); or the high polyphenol chocolate without additional vitamin E (n=25). Muscle mass will be the primary endpoint. Other outcomes are neurocognitive status and previously identified biomolecular indices of frailty in predementia patients. Muscle biopsies will be collected to assess myocyte contraction and mitochondrial metabolism. Blood and plasma samples will be analysed for laboratory endpoints including nutrition metabolism and omics. Ethics and dissemination: All the ethical and regulatory approvals have been obtained by the ethical committees of the Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Integrata of Verona with respect to scientific content and compliance with applicable research and human subjects' regulation. Given the broader interest of the society toward undernutrition in the elderly, we identify four main target audiences for our research activity: national and local health systems, both internal and external to the project; targeted population (the elderly); general public; and academia. These activities include scientific workshops, public health awareness campaigns, project dedicated website and publication is scientific peer-review journals. Trial registration number: NCT05343611

Physical activity measured by implanted devices predicts atrial arrhythmias and patient outcome: Results of IMPLANTED (Italian Multicentre Observational Registry on Patients With Implantable Devices Remotely Monitored)

Background--To determine whether daily physical activity (PA), as measured by implanted devices (through accelerometer sensor), was related to the risk of developing atrial arrhythmias during long-term follow-up in a population of heart failure (HF) patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Methods and Results--The study population was divided into 2 equally sized groups (PA cutoff point: 3.5 h/d) according to their mean daily PA recorded by the device during the 30- to 60-day period post-ICD implantation. Propensity score matching was used to compare 2 equally sized cohorts with similar characteristics between lower and higher activity patients. The primary end point was time free from the first atrial high-rate episode (AHRE) of duration 656 minutes. Secondary end points were: first AHRE 656 hours, first AHRE 6548 hours, and a combined end point of death or HF hospitalization. Data from 770 patients (65\ub115 years; 66% men; left ventricular ejection fraction 35\ub112%) remotely monitored for a median of 25 months were analyzed. A PA =3.5 h/d was associated with a 38% relative reduction in the risk of AHRE 656 minutes (72-month cumulative survival: 75.0% versus 68.1%; log rank P=0.025), and with a reduction in the risk of AHRE 656 hours, AHRE 6548 hours, and the combined end point of death or HF hospitalization (all P < 0.05). Conclusions--In HF patients with ICD, a low level of daily PA was associated with a higher risk of atrial arrhythmias, regardless of the patients' baseline characteristics. In addition, a lower daily PA predicted death or HF hospitalization

The Management of Decumulation Risks in a Defined Contribution Pension Plan

The aim of the paper is to lay the theoretical foundations for the construction of a flexible tool that can be used by pensioners to find optimal investment and consumption choices in the distribution phase of a defined contribution pension plan. The investment/consumption plan is adopted until the time of compulsory annuitization, taking into account the possibility of earlier death. The effect of the bequest motive and the desire to buy a higher annuity than the one purchasable at retirement are included in the objective function. The mathematical tools provided by dynamic programming techniques are applied to find closed-form solutions: numerical examples are also presented. In the model, the tradeoff between the different desires of the individual regarding consumption and final annuity can be dealt with by choosing appropriate weights for these factors in the setting of the problem. Conclusions are twofold. First, we find that there is a natural time-varying target for the size of the fund, which acts as a sort of safety level for the needs of the pensioner. Second, the personal preferences of the pensioner can be translated into optimal choices, which in turn affect the distribution of the consumption path and of the final annuity

Occupational Exposure to Fine Particles and Ultrafine Particles in a Steelmaking Foundry

Several studies have shown an increased mortality rate for different types of tumors, respiratory disease and cardiovascular morbidity associated with foundry work. Airborne particles were investigated in a steelmaking foundry using an electric low-pressure impactor (ELPI+™), a Philips Aerasense Nanotracer and traditional sampling equipment. Determination of metallic elements in the collected particles was carried out by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The median of ultrafine particle (UFP) concentration was between 4.91 × 103 and 2.33 × 105 part/cm3 (max. 9.48 × 106 part/cm3). Background levels ranged from 1.97 × 104 to 3.83 × 104 part/cm3. Alveolar and deposited tracheobronchial surface area doses ranged from 1.3 × 102 to 8.7 × 103 mm2, and 2.6 × 101 to 1.3 × 103 mm2, respectively. Resulting inhalable and respirable fraction and metallic elements were below limit values set by Italian legislation. A variable concentration of metallic elements was detected in the different fractions of UFPs in relation to the sampling site, the emission source and the size range. This data could be useful in order to increase the knowledge about occupational exposure to fine and ultrafine particles and to design studies aimed to investigate early biological effects associated with the exposure to particulate matter in the foundry industries

Insight into contact force local impedance technology for predicting effective pulmonary vein isolation

BackgroundHighly localized impedance (LI) measurements during atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation have the potential to act as a reliable predictor of the durability of the lesions created.ObjectiveWe aimed to collect data on the procedural parameters affecting LI-guided ablation in a large multicenter registry.MethodsA total of 212 consecutive patients enrolled in the CHARISMA registry and undergoing their first pulmonary vein (PV) isolation for paroxysmal and persistent AF were included.ResultsIn all, 13,891 radiofrequency (RF) applications of ≥3 s duration were assessed. The first-pass PV isolation rate was 93.3%. A total of 80 PV gaps were detected. At successful ablation spots, baseline LI and absolute LI drop were larger than at PV gap spots (161.4 ± 19 Ω vs. 153.0 ± 13 Ω, p < 0.0001 for baseline LI; 22.1 ± 9 Ω vs. 14.4 ± 5 Ω, p < 0.0001 for LI drop). On the basis of Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the ideal LI drop, which predicted successful ablation, was >21 Ω at anterior sites and >18 Ω at posterior sites. There was a non-linear association between the magnitude of LI drop and contact-force (CF) (r = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.13–0.16, p < 0.0001) whereas both CF and LI drop were inversely related with delivery time (DT) (−0.22, −0.23 to −0.20, p < 0.0001 for CF; −0.27, −0.29 to −0.26, p < 0.0001 for LI drop).ConclusionAn LI drop >21 Ω at anterior sites and >18 Ω at posterior sites predicts successful ablation. A higher CF was associated with an increased likelihood of ideal LI drop. The combination of good CF and adequate LI drop allows a significant reduction in RF DT.Clinical trial registrationhttp://clinicaltrials.gov/, identifier: NCT03793998

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements